Ruth Bader Ginsburg Changes Everything (Again)
Ruth Bader Ginsburg is an American icon. Who knew the minuscule justice appointed by then President William J. Clinton would have such a profound impact on the court? It’s not a foregone conclusion a party’s nominee will end up being such a perfect representation of that party’s goals and aspirations. Chief Justice Roberts was not. Nor was Neil Gorsuch. Nor was Brett Kavanaugh. All three, if you ask conservatives, have been disappointments.
When Scalia died in Obama’s final term, McConnel held up the vote to confirm Merrick Garland, a name that is currently trending on Twitter. In the defense of this Mitch McConnell famous said:
“The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”
These words, verbatim were Tweeted by minority leader Chuck Schumer this morning. There are 46 days until the election in contrast to the nearly ten months Mitch McConnell held up Scalia’s replacement, when the Justice died in February of 2016.
Mitch McConnell now says he will vote on Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s replacement — in a move that many (correctly) point out as hypocritical. Let’s set aside the hypocrisy for a moment — many probably saw that coming a mile away, and focus on the election part.
I have recently opined on my fears that Trump will win re-election. This flies in the face of a lot of polling data (although not all of it). The reaction of Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death is not, as of yet, reflected in any polls taken. We likely will not see it reflected for another week, maybe more. As the rush to confirmation accelerates we will not only see this reflected in the Presidental polls, but also in the Senate races as well. Incidentally two Senators up for re-election are Mitch McConnell himself, in a race with Amy McGrath (a name currently trending on Twitter) and Lindsey Graham, who played a pivotal role in the fight against Merrick Garland’s confirmation. Lindsey Graham famously said that you could “use his words against him” during the last year of a “four year term”, and that this precedent of not confirming a Justice in the final year would hold. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio both echoed these sentiments. In addition, you have two female Senators, Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) who are particularly vulnerable right now and may join in the chorus of Democrat Senators to at least delay the confirmations another 46 days. David Perdue (R-GA) of Georgia may also not welcome this news. Needless to say, all the stops will, and will need to be pulled out.
Trump, in contrast to his usually bombastic style had a very somber, human reaction to the news.
(Courtesy of C-SPAN)
This led many Democrats and left-leaning Twitter users to proclaim that secretly Trump was tap-dancing in a fit of joy back to Air Force One. In my humble opinion, nothing could be further from the truth, in an era where a global pandemic has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, and giant wildfires rage over the left-half of the country, this is the worst possible news he could have gotten.
Trump, for all his faults, is an incredibly sharp campaigner. This mostly stems from his ability to manipulate the media. He is excellent at reframing even an entire global pandemic as actually being about him, all about him. That is what he does after all, he takes every conversation and makes it about him. This is why I was tepid about enthusiasm pollsters had about the midterm results — Trump wasn’t in that race. His supporters are driven by his cult of personality, and when he’s not actively present, it affects the outcome. Trump himself has not been successful getting other Congressmen and Senators elected. In some cases his presence can be counterproductive. If there’s anything Trump would not want, it would be for his race to be a referendum on someone else.
Now it is.
The election isn’t about him. About ten days from now Trump’s first debate won’t be about the pandemic, the economy, or climate change induced wildfires, although I’m sure all those topics will be covered, they will be all about the hypocrisy of the Republican party, who salivated over holding up Obama’s replacement in 2016. The same Obama who’s Vice President is running for office. The fence sitting suburban women, who Trump was dog-whistling to when he fearmongered to them about the suburbs being destroyed by black clad antifa — the riots will likely subside in the coming colder weather — will now be thinking about Roe v Wade and women’s rights. Trump himself has been a bit quiet on abortion, gay marriage (he supports that, in fact), religious [Christian] freedom and evangelical issues in contrast to your more traditional Republican candidates. He’s hardly the paragon of Christian virtue George W. Bush was, and his two Supreme Court selections have been questionable at best. as two landmark decisions on LGBTQ rights and Immigration have been ruled since Trump has selected justices, with Gorsuch siding with the more left leaning justices. There’s also another wrinkle in that Trump has voters in swing states that are pro-choice (or perhaps more adequately could be described as ‘not pro-life’). Prior to the passing of RGB, in August of this, “less than 0.5% of Americans told Gallup that they consider abortion the most important problem in America.”
Think that won’t change?
Trump is between a rock and a very hard place. He can attempt his usual bluster, which will come off as more callous and rude than usual in the wake of an American icon’s death. He can push the nomination through, but that may anger and embolden Democrats. He can wait on the nomination, but that be rally and embolden Democrats who see it as a way not to bloody the eye of Trump, but to bludgeon Mitch McConnell and the Republicans for the hypocrisy they displayed after 2016. Most importantly though the race is not about Trump and his decisions. The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg was, after all, completely out of his control. This is not something he can call a hoax, gaslight voters about, or troll the media over. He’s not being held to his own words, but rather the words of the Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell. This not only changes the way he has to play the game, making him play the game the way your standard politician does, but also gives him a scapegoat for his possible loss: Mitch McConnell. He is no longer responsible for his re-election solely, but rather he is responsible for his entire party, the same party he ran against in the Republican primary. The same primary where Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of the twenty Republicans running at the time and the current chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, told the American people to “tell Donald Trump to go to Hell.”
The death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg changes everything.