The Dye is Cast: AOC 2028
I like to read history, and some periods of time feel like they cycle through history. It’s a conspiracy, we’re told, or maybe a science, or maybe it’s our nature. It feels like the 1920s. People in the wealthy class, the upper 5% are bracing for another recession. Many people who grew up in the upper middle class got rich off stock portfolios. Then there was a crash.
What happened next was devestating. A crash, a run on the banks. Panic. People went from rich to flat broke overnight.
The period that proceeding it was run by robber barons. The government was run by a series of billionaires; men like Andrew Carnegie, JD Rockefeller, and JP Morgan, among others. The decade began with the election of Warren G. Harding, an eccentric newspaper magnet, playboy, and Trumpian figure. The middle period was led by the steady and more socially progressive Silent Cal, Calvin Collidge. It ended with Herbert Hoover, another eccentric bombast who tried a shock therapy on the economy involving tariffs and austerity measures, something Conservatives swear to this day would have worked better than what FDR did.
Both Harding and Hoover’s administrations in particular were run roughshod by robber barons. Seeking to get while the getting was good. FDR emerged as a left wing figure, arguably not always intending to be, and obviously of a well known family lineage. Hardly an outsider. His slogan “happy days are here again” were more evocative of Kamala Harris.
I don’t think anyone is expecting, however, another Great Depression. Recession, maybe.
This question of AOC in 2028 is one of the moment, and of course, whether she can win a general election. My contention is the answer is yes to both.
The moment will relate to the Democratic primary of which she will have to enter. The Democrats have no identity right now. They are the party of everyone from Bernie Sanders to Liz Cheney. Ironically, if I could draft someone the names that spring to mind are Jon Stewart or Ben Affleck, because I think the most outside of outsiders would shine through. However, that will probably not happen.
The list of likely names are Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Kamala Harris, Wes Moore, JD Pritzker, Pete Buttigieg, and AOC. Most lists have Kamala Harris the overwhelming favorite, and this, at current time makes sense. However, she has a big problem. She is a big loser. Didn't make gate in 2020. Got blown out by Donald Trump. She will be instant chum in debates. She takes around 40% of the vote. So where does that establishment Democrat vote go.
Let’s call the first group “The Harry Sisson Crowd”. Young college Democrats. Probably Pete Buttigieg, with some split to JD Pritzker. Gavin Newsom will have narrow appeal, in my opinion, but will consolidate more blue collar support. Then the rest.
AOC is coming in between 5–10% in most polls. Some close to 10%. I think people underestimate though, like with Trump, she has the loudest and most aggressive fans. She will draw the largest crowds earliest. Pete Buttigieg may draw a few decent crowds, but AOC could easily get 50,000+ to show up for her announcement. Especially if she made it in New York. That would make waves, immediately.
She will ride that economic populist message hard and leech off support from a plethora of establishment candidates, and then that 10% quickly becomes 20%, the longer she stays in, the more that can become 30%. It is also believable that she can get black support. You have to think only Harris or Wes Moore will be the only competition there. It won’t be Buttigieg, or Gavin Gruesome Newsom. This creates a pathway for AOC similar to Trump in 2016. Allowing her opponents to chew themselves to bits and her to pick up the remains.
Let’s assume Democracy is intact and the Republicans also have a primary. Most likely candidates; Nikki Haley, JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, Vivek Ramaswamy. Vivek would probably be the insurgent style candidate capable of winning, but I don’t think he has that it factor. Nikki Haley is the Romney style pick. The Republicans seeing reason and wanting to maintain order, and would probably be AOC’s most difficult challenger. JD Vance. Don’t make me laugh. Ron DeSantis. Yeah, good lucky buddy.
In my opinion what Trump 2024 election has taught us is that brand recognition and online media are very important. The thing about online media is the relationships are culivated. How good you are at it is less important than how much exposure you have on it. How much content do you generate. AOC is the only one who rivals Trump in terms of output and outreach online. 12.9 million followers on X, 1.8 million on Facebook, 8.1 million on Instagram, and 1.9 million on Threads. She has been a constant fixture of media, and more importantly conservative media, who have unintentionally made her a celebrity. This is what you need to win an election.
It is clear that Harris simply inserting herself into a few podcasts was not enough. You need wall to wall media coverage, and only AOC can generate than.
The next drawback for Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is she is just in Congress. There have been a scant few jumps from Congress to the Presidency, but the “it’s not your time” argument was invoked against JFK, a young insurgent candidate who followed unpopular party men, and it amounted to a hill of beans.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s time is now.
She is the clear choice for candidate in the 2028 primary. She will be able to insert herself into the podcast and online circuit seamlessly. She will look the least out of place on Joe Rogan. She’s comfortable with her fans. Worse still, many of those Republican young men find her hot. She’s everywhere on X and Fox News. Trump showed that this level of saturation is a good thing. He also showed that having haters, which she has, is a good thing, sometimes.
I don’t think anyone the Republicans could run, except maybe a different celebrity, could beat her. I don’t believe JD Vance has the charisma. Nor DeSantis. Nikki Haley might be an issue for AOC, but otherwise, she will garner the most excitement.
AOC 2028